If We Lose the Booz

The Deseret News, citing an article from Yahoo! Sports (which I could not find), reported that Heat executives are "working furiously to deliver" a three-way deal that would send Carlos Boozer to Miami. In exchange, the Jazz would receive Udonis Haslem and Dorrell Wright. The third party would be the Memphis Grizzlies. Utah would move Wright's $2.8 million salary to Memphis, with Memphis getting a mixture cash and draft picks.

If this deal is legit, the mixture of cash and picks to Memphis should not include the Knicks' pick that the Jazz have. Why? With Boozer's exit imminent, Utah needs to replace his scoring more than anything.

Let's talk scoring options and strategy: Is Deron Williams now Utah's 1st option when it comes to putting the ball in the basket? If so, that is a dramatic departure from how the Jazz's offense has been run under Frank Layden and Jerry Sloan. Moreover, Williams as a 1st option also does not play to his strengths of running the offense and distributing the basketball. He was actually our leading scorer last year, but I think most would agree that a) this is attributed to the injury-riddle season; and b) the Jazz's 8th-place finish and quick first-round exit is not satisfactory.

Historically, the Jazz have had the most success with their 4 being scoring option #1. Does Paul Millsap become the 1st option just like Malone and Boozer were? If so, Jazz fans should not expect Millsap to produce similar point totals. Millsap does a lot of great things, but anyone who paid attention last season saw that his numbers went way down when teams recognized how Utah was using him and adjusted their defense accordingly. In particular, Millsap struggles when defended by someone with great length. And without another scoring option to draw this type of defender elsewhere, the Jazz will not be successful with Millsap being their 1st option on offense.

Maybe there will be no "1st Option". Maybe Okur, Brewer, Miles and/or Kirilenko pick up the slack. Before Joe Dumars destroyed the Pistons by trading for Allen Iverson, their version of this model was successful. Who was their first option? Billups? Sheed? Rip Hamilton? Tayshaun Prince? Its hard to say. Regardless, the Jazz will need to get points from somewhere, and the proposal mentioned above, like others we've seen, does not solve this problem by itself. Thus, keeping that draft pick and hoping for a terrible upcoming season from the Knicks may be the Jazz's best solution.

Pistons A No-Go For Boozer?

To piggy-back on top of Crotty Kid's thorough trade analysis below... Chad Ford of ESPN.com is reporting that Detroit may not be pursuing Carlos Boozer during free agency afterall, even after trading for Fabricio Oberto (whom they plan on buying-out). This is what he says, according to his sources:

"Over the past few months, we've assumed Carlos Boozer is their (Detroit’s) primary target, but that might not be the case. A league source told me Tuesday that the Pistons' free-agent strategy likely would preclude a run at Boozer.
The Pistons want to add several players to the roster and want to keep salaries at or less than $10 million per year. With Boozer likely demanding a deal in the $15 million to $16 million a year range, his contract demands are out of their league. Add in concerns about Boozer's injury history, and I don't think the Pistons will make a play for him.
Instead, you can look for them to make a run at Ben Gordon, try to re-sign Antonio McDyess and find one or two other players they can sign for smaller salaries.
That stance in Detroit could put Boozer in a tough position. If he opts out of his contract with the Jazz, he's going to struggle to find any team far enough under the cap to offer him what he wants. And with the Jazz interested in keeping Paul Millsap, Boozer could be out of luck in Utah, too."

Trades That Make You Go Hmmmm

Don't you love the NBA offseason?!! I do, and with two days until draft night it's starting to heat up. A quick recap:

1. Wizards-Timberwolves My hometown Wizards trade a bunch of garbage (Etan Thomas, Oleksiy Pecherov, Darius Songalia) and the #5 pick to the T-Wolves in exchange for Randy Foye and Mike Miller.

Results: The Wizards do something right!! With the addition of Miller and Foye, the Wiz go from a lottery team to a team that should make the second round in an increasingly competitive Eastern Conference. For the T-Wolves it is all about the future. They eat some terrible contracts of terrible players but now have 4 first round draft picks on Thursday (# 5, 6, 18, 28). Congrats, T-Wolves, you are hanging your future on four picks from the worst draft in the last 10 years. Have fun building around Tyreke Evans and Johnny Flynn. And you will love Pecherov. He provides the most unintentional humor of any NBA player and he never got the recognition he deserved. You will be missed, Oleksiy.

How it affects the Jazz: Not in the least. Although, now that I think about it, the T-Wolves are probably the worst team in the NBA at this point. They are also in our division which means we play them a lot and at important times. So we might not lose at home to them late in the year when playoff seeding is on the line.

2. Spurs-Bucks The Spurs trade Bruce Bowen and Kurt Thomas for Richard Jefferson.

Results: The Spurs are contending for championships. Again. You have to hand it to San Antonio, they make the right moves. This pushes them into luxury tax land, but it also makes them (in my mind) the clear cut #2 team in the West. And I don't think they are too far behind the Lakers. For the Bucks, they remain a terrible team with no identity.

How it affects the Jazz: Our nemesis lives. The Spurs unload an old Bruce Bowen and an ancient Kurt Thomas for an athletic wing player who had a career 3-point shooting year. Plus, after the Bucks cut Bowen he will likely resign with San Antonio. Not good.
3. Spurs-Pistons-Bucks: What? Didn't hear about this blockbuster? The Spurs sent Fabricio Oberto to Detroit (who should be cut within the hour) in exchange for Amir Johnson who is headed to Milwaukee.

Results: For the Pistons, they are giving up on their project power forward. Detroit saves $1.5 million and the Bucks get a low-priced big man. Win-win.

How it affects the Jazz: Surprisingly this is the most relevant trade to the Jazz' lineup. The Pistons cleared cap space and dealt a young power forward, meaning they have $1.5 million more to throw at one of the Jazz' young power forwards. To me, this move indicates that the Pistons are definitely making a play for either Millsap or Boozer. The question now is which one.

Crotty Kid's Offseason Guide: Vol. 3

Welcome back, offseason sports fans. Last time we met, we discussed the market value of the Jazz' player optionees. Pasty agreed with me that Korver is overpaid and is actually worth about $3 million, Booner felt that my assessment of Boozer's value ($12 million) was still high, and no one said anything about my valuation of Okur ($11 million).

Today's discussion will be who has money to overpay these guys. And the list is not long. The teams listed in orange below are the only teams with cap space over the midlevel exception (about $5.5 mil). Any team can sign free agents up to the midlevel extension, but only those with cap room can go above that number. The cap numbers listed below assume that the team will rescind its rights to its own free agents, which is unlikely in a lot of cases (like Atlanta).

Basically, you have three teams that could lure away Memo or Boozer: Detroit, Memphis, and Oklahoma City. There are a couple of teams that could make a run at Korver, but I don't think he'd get more than the midlevel exception anyway.

Detroit: The Pistons are the team that everyone thinks will try to lure away Boozer. They've got cash ($17 million under the cap), they have been linked with Boozer before, and they are losing three power forwards to free agency (Rasheed, Maxiell, McDyess). Four if you count the Walter Herrmann, and you know I do.

But, there are some things working against Detroit signing Booze. First, they are located in Detroit. I'm not sure how willing their owners will be to sign a guy that shoots balls into a hoop to a long term deal in the $50 million range when the city is boasting 22% unemployment. Second, when you are one of the only teams with real money to spend, you can play the field. Instead of Boozer, they could go after a true free agent like Marion, Lamar Odom, or Ron Artest (oh, sweet irony) and offer a rock bottom price, hoping that the desperate free agent bites. Or, they could make a run at a retricted guy and hope his cash-strapped club blinks. That list of possibilities includes David Lee, Glen Davis, and our very own Paul Millsap.

Memphis: The Grizzlies have tons of coin to spend ($19 million), but the question with them is always, "will they spend it?" Remember this is the team that traded Pau Gasol for his brother. They aren't about winning, they are about staying afloat. That alone disqualifies them in my mind as a serious suitor for Boozer or Okur. I may well be proven wrong, but I see the Griz treading water for a few more years until they become the Seattle Grizzlies. I don't see Memphis opening up the checkbook for anyone, let alone Boozer.

Oklahoma City: This team is an enigma. They are loaded with young talent in Westbrook, Durant, and Green. They have a high draft pick this year. They have a pretty loyal fan base that spends money. They have a good cap situation -their worst contract is two more years of Nick Collison at $6.5 million. And (chun-chun-chun) I think Okur is a perfect fit for them. They need a shooter to take heat off Westbrook and Durant, they are dying for a real center, and Oklahoma City is renowned for its shawarma.

But, is a team led by two future all-stars who still cannot legally drink willing to risk a long-term deal with a 30-year old center, even one who is relatively injury-free for his career? And is Memo, a guy who reportedly loves Salt Lake willing to move to Oklahoma City?

Prediction: I don't think any of these teams go after Boozer or Okur. It's just too much money to spend for teams that are going with youth. Boozer to Detroit is the one deal that seems to make some sense, but I still think they'd prefer a younger, cheaper, more durable version of Carlos.

Summer Endings

We all know that the Jazz came up short against the Lakers in the quarterfinals of last season’s playoffs. Also, the Jazz haven’t made any significant roster moves to change the make-up of the team. Will the Jazz be able to contend for a title with virtually the same roster as last season? Will continuity be the difference? Without any huge shake-ups happening over the summer, the Jazz can only hope that retaining CJ Miles, trading for Brevin Knight and drafting Kosta Koufas will be enough to boost their title contending status.

Let’s just hope that we win “the thing” with our current cast!

Next summer will present different challenges for the Jazz. How will the Jazz brass keep the team intact? Here is a list of the competing NBA teams with potential cap space for Free Agency 2009, possibly vying for the services of Boozer, Memo, Millsap, and even AK47 (by way of a player for cap space scenario).

Atlanta Hawks: The Hawks could be a player on the market with Mike Bibby coming off the books. However, with the re-signing of Josh Smith and the inside presence of rookie Al Horford, it wouldn’t seem likely that the Hawks would be interested in more front court players.

Likelihood = Low

Denver Nuggets: Allen Iverson finishes up his contract with the Nuggets, freeing up nearly $21 million. The Nugs already overpay for stalwart talents like Nene and Kenyon Martin. It’ll be doubtful that they’ll even have enough cap space to make a dent in the market.

Likelihood = Not happening

Detroit Pistons: The Pistons are an interesting possibility. Rasheed Wallace becomes a free agent and Rip Hamilton has an early termination option to jump out of his contract. If both leave, the Pistons become a major cap player.

Likelihood = Warm

Memphis Grizzlies: Memphis will have some cash to spend. Evidence of their spending showed when they offered a hefty contract to Josh Smith this summer, only to be matched by the Hawks. Memphis has shown some interest in taking on Zach Randolph via trade this summer. They could certainly use an inside presence. Will anyone take their cash?

Likelihood = Active

Miami Heat: Shawn Marion wraps up his contract after this season, opening up $18 million. The Heat has been known to possess interest in the Booz, through multiple Miami news reports. But will they have enough cap space to lure him? In addition, Michael Beasley plays power forward. The Booz and Beasley are two similar players…offensive minded scorers. It doesn’t seem like a natural fit.

Likelihood = Possible

Oklahoma City Thunder: The franchise in Oklahoma has been preparing cap space for the next summer. They’ve unloaded Luke Ridnour for expiring contracts (Joe Smith and Desmond Mason) and have others coming off the books (Chris Wilcox). OKC should have nearly $25 million to spend in free agency next summer and possess nice, young talented players on the roster. Certainly, they’ll have to save up a little bit in order to re-sign Kevin Durant in the future.

Likelihood = Hot

Portland TrailBlazers: Raef LaFrentz will come off the books after the season and Portland should have a load of money to spend. Their concern however will be in locking up Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge and Greg Oden as the up-and-coming nucleus. I doubt Portland will be looking elsewhere in free agency when they’re so loaded from within.

Likelihood = Nope

Motown Rumor Mill

The radio stations in Detroit have been abuzz with speculation that our own Carlos Boozer might be coming to town with a couple of his Jazz pals. As far as I can tell, there are two possible trades being discussed in the media.

Here is the first from http://www.realgm.com/

http://www.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=788723

Detroit trades: RIP Hamilton Jason Maxiell #29 Utah trades: Carlos Boozer Ronnie Brewer

Why for Detroit? They get younger. They get a legit 20 and 10 big man in Boozer. Boozer would average 12+ Rebounds per game on Detroit. They get a solid young SG who's athletic and can defend. Would be a great SG to pair with Stuckey for a future backcourt. Sheed can cover up Boozer's sub par D.


Why for Utah? Boozer is a poor defender. He was outplayed by Scola and Landry in round one, and been outplayed big time by Gasol and Odom. Boozer's D makes Okur look like a defensive stud. Boozer's playoffs have been sup par and the Jazz have done better with him on the bench than playing. They have a solid young PF waiting in the wings in Paul Millsap. Jason Maxiell will also be great for them and they'd have a great you duo of PFs who can both play defense. Rip gives them a legit 20 PPG scorer and ton of big game experience.

And here is the second, courtesy of http://www.espn.com/

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=Detroit-080612

2. Utah's Carlos Boozer, Ronnie Brewer, Jarron Collins and Morris Almond for Hamilton, Prince and Arron Afflalo

As a contender without the right pieces to get over the top, the Jazz are in a similar boat as the Pistons. Could this swap help both teams?

Utah would get two veteran wing players to shore up its two weakest positions on the floor. The Jazz would lose an All-Star in Boozer, but the move would allow them to shift Andrei Kirilenko back to the 4, where he thrived before Boozer joined the team -- and they have Paul Millsap to back him up. Also, Boozer has an early termination option after the upcoming season. I think the Jazz are concerned that he'll bolt Utah for a bigger market.

Detroit would be giving up two key wings but getting back a low-post scorer and rebounder in Boozer, something the team has needed the past few years. Stuckey would step in as the starting 2 guard. Brewer would give the Pistons a long defender who can play both the 2 and 3, and Almond showed a lot of promise in the D-League last year. The Jazz would still need to find someone to play the 3, but they have trade bait like Jason Maxiell or Antonio McDyess to make that happen.

This is a trade that would shake up the core of both teams while allowing them to compete for an NBA championship next year.

What’s your take? Would you pull the trigger? Does this really make either team better?

Why I Cheer For the Pistons (and why you should too)

A most unlikely thing has happened this playoffs: the eastern conference has been more exciting than the west. With all the hoopla of a regular season that featured scintillating games and fierce playoff races, the western playoffs has been a snoozer. Aside from a brilliant Suns/Spurs first rounder and a competitive Jazz/Lakers series, the western conference matchups have been an all-out lamefest. Even the Spurs/Hornets seven game battle featured 6 homecourt blowouts, followed by a gutsy Spurs win. Bo-ring.

And now, with the current Lakers/Spurs battle to determine which team contains the most NBA-holes, the East again delivers with a great matchup: Detroit/Boston. And I'm here today to tell you who to root for: the Detroit Pistons.

Just like Obi Wan Kenobi, the Pistons are the Jazz' only hope. Each of the teams left in the playoffs, minus one, have at least one player that is a lock to be included in any discussion of the NBA's greatest 100 players of all time: the Spurs have Duncan, the Lakers have Kobe, and the Celtics have Garnett (and Pierce?). The Pistons don't have such a player. The best player on their team is quite debatable (Billups, Rip, Rasheed). Similarly, the Jazz don't have that once-in-a-lifetime player. Deron might get there one day, but he's not going to go on the road and rip someone's heart out - yet.

The Pistons are just a ragtag bunch of castoffs that happen to fit together perfectly. Chauncey was a bust until he landed with the Pistons, Rasheed was given away by Portland and Atlanta because he was a head-case, Rip was traded for Stackhouse and Brian Cardinal, and Tayshaun was drafted with the 22nd pick in the draft. The Jazz (minus Deron) are a similar bunch: Kirilenko was drafted late, the Pistons let Okur walk, and Boozer was considered too small to draft in the first round. Like the Pistons, there is a real sense of purpose with the Jazz personnel - even if that purpose doesn't include defense.

Anyway, what I'm trying to say, is that we, as Jazz fans, have to cheer against the superstar model of NBA team building. We don't have a superstar, and we're unlikely to have one any time soon. We need to believe that a team can be greater than the sum of its parts, that the individuals can be subsumed in something greater than themselves. That, to me, is partly what being a Jazz fan is all about - believing that the right combination of smarts and effort can overcome a lack of god-given talent. That's why I'm rooting for a Pistons championship.

RIP Kobe Up

In the 2003-2004 NBA finals, Larry Brown and the Pistons found a way to slow down Kobe Bryant: make him play hard on defense. Rip Hamilton has always been one of the best conditioned players in the game and is a master at moving without the ball. When the Pistons realized that Kobe would be defending Rip, they forced him to chase Hamilton, who never stopped moving, during long offensive possessions and to fight through crushing screens from Rasheed and Ben Wallace. Make no mistake, Kobe is an excellent defender. But by forcing him to expend so much energy on the defensive end of the floor, the Pistons slowed Kobe down offensively.

Game 3 of the series provides a striking example of how effective the Pistons' game plan was. Kobe went 4-13 from the field and finished with 11 points. Rip took 22 shots making 11 of them and finished with 31 points.

The Jazz do not have a Rip Hamilton type player, but I would like to see us push Kobe on defense by looking for Brewer on cuts to the basket, posting up AK and running Korver off double screens when Kobe is defending them. Kobe will surely make some nice defensive plays, but as the Pistons proved, making Kobe play hard on defense may be the best way to slow him on offense.